In our saviour Christ Jesus’
St Philip – Athens – 53AD
OK so this note isn’t about Jesus, but the numbers are pretty important.
As promised, I am going to do a piece on the state of the Republican Party, concentrating on how they did in 2008, and what that tells us about their chances for 2010 and more importantly 2012.
Many liberal pundits seemed to actually think that 2008 was a defining year for US politics and I suppose in some ways it was. But how should 2008 shape our future opinions on politics in the US? Few people would have predicted that a Democrat could win in North Carolina or Indiana, or do so well in Missouri. Obama won in Nevada, again quite impressive. But let’s be realistic here, Obama ran effectively against the incumbent, pretending that the choice was between him or Bush, and people chose him. Bush was one of the most unpopular Presidents in history, Obama will have a different task when he runs for re-election. More importantly, it is the numbers that are key and that I have always considered so interesting in politics.
So a few facts then:
There are 538 Votes in the Electoral College and 270 are required to win.
Senator McCain won 173 with 45.7% of the popular vote.
President Obama won 365 with 53.9%.
So far, McCain got thrashed by Obama in a Democratic landslide.
But hang on, vote turn out was 63%.
This was held up as impressive because it was higher than usual, but what it failed to take into account was the nature of that 63%. Now the media and many pundits seem to suggest that that 63% represents the 61% who voted in 2004 plus 2 extra percent. That could not be more wrong. Polling suggests that up to 6% of those who voted were first time voters, which is in itself stunning. A huge increase in black turnout, and in youth turnout means that Obama pulled in a lot of people who never voted before, but in that impressive stat lies the shocking truth. Rougly 6% of those who voted in 2004, did not vote in 2008, and 97.8% of those had voted for Bush in 2004 and are traditional Republican voters. So what happened to the other 6%? To the 13 million or more who usually vote but didn’t this time, are they gone forever? Well, I doubt it.
When we look at the states won by McCain, it is fair to say that you would expect almost any Republican to be able to win them.
Alabama, Alaska, Arizona, Arkansas, Georgia, Idaho, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, North Dakota, Oklahoma, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, West Virginia, Wyoming.
Those are the states that McCain won to get his 173 electoral votes. In my opinion, 2 states that he lost quite surprisingly are Indiana and North Carolina. Now the main thing to remember is that they are both obviously red states, and that both races were EXTREMELY tight. Indiana was lost by 30,000 votes, North Carolina by 40,000. Now we can argue about this, but if we are honest it is difficult to say that those 2 states going Democrat again is anything other than very unlikely. Both had low turnout (relatively) among traditional Republican voters, and bar a native son being picked from one of them as Obama’s runningmate in 2012, I think it is fair to say they will be back in the Republican column without any real fight.
That puts the Republicans on 198 Electoral Votes before a dollar is spent, in my opinion. So the question is how do they get the extra 72 electoral votes, before Obama does? Well here it is Republicans, the game plan that will win you the next election.
To do this the Republicans first need to avoid electing someone of the far right, or of the religious right. Palin is a no-no, she probably can’t win the states McCain did, and Huckabee is probaby out too because I doubt he can shake off the evangelical label enough. He could make a good VP pick to unite the party, but not a leading candidate I don’t think. Romney, or Pawlenty both strong, especially Romney. Romney would need an evangelical I think as a VP, so if Huckabee and he could get past their disagreements that would be a really amazing combo. So how does Romney win from here?
Well he takes those states McCain won, he wins back Indiana (for those still wondering why I put that in the Republican side so easily, turnout was 59.7% in 2008, and between 4-6% usual voters didn’t, and they were all Republicans who thought they’d lose) and North Carolina, and then he moves on to the following targets:
Nevada – 5 Electoral Votes – A naturally conservative state, and somewhere that Obama is not popular after what has been perceived as huge growth in government. Nevadans are famously interested in the budget, and with a $1.6 trillion deficit this year and almost certainly right up to 2012, this is prime Romney territory.
Florida – 27 Electoral Votes – A state that decides so many elections, and McCain was not far off at all in 2008. Romney could do well here, with the voters far from convinced by Obama. A relatively small African American population compared to some other massive states make Florida a possibility, and also probably a necessity. Playing to Jewish concerns about Obama’s failure to support Israel would also be a good idea. Obama is vulnerable here, especially if white male turnout can be boosted like Bush managed in 2004.
Ohio – 20 Electoral Votes – ‘So Ohio goes so goes the nation’ as the saying goes.
Turnout in Ohio is pretty key. It was at 66.7% and so relatively high, but once again that is distorted. The truth is a lot of Republicans stayed home and didn’t vote, and while large black turnout made up for it and delivered a Democrat victory, these people are much more likely to be back out in force in 2012 after what they see as a government take-over in healthcare. Obama’s approval ratings in Ohio have dropped the most almost in the country, going from 67% approval in March to a current low of 39%. A staggering 75% of Ohio voters believe the country is on the wrong track. Faith, guns, jobs and the war are key issues, they were in 08 and will be in 10 (where I expect you will see the Republicans make real gains here in the House) and 12. Faith I’m going to talk about seperately. Gun worries will bring out rural Ohio residents far more than Palin managed in 2008, as well the situation in Iraq. A lot of military families in Ohio, and if Obama can make real progress in bringing the boys home from Iraq AND Afghanistan then that’ll be a big boost to him there.
In reality though, Ohio will be decided on the economy (at least amongst Independents). Since September, there has not been a month with fewer than 50,000 job losses in Ohio. In December, 176,000 people lost their jobs for Christmas. In one state. The thing that’ll matter to independents is ‘how many of my friends have got news jobs?’, and it’ll matter to the unions too, who have never been completely comfortable with Obama.
Ohio will be a tough state to win, and no Republican has ever won the White House without it, but it is always a toss-up, never a forgone conclusion, and a Republican could do very well here, especially someone like Romney with his economic record.
Colorado – 9 Electoral Votes – The Rockies could be very helpful.
Colorado went for Bush in 2004, but Obama in 2008 on a really high turn-out, pushing 70%. For Colorado, that is frankly amazing. Obama did very well among Latino voters, helped of course by the strong Clinton endorsement. It’s hard to see turnout going up, but it can be hoped that it will change fundamentally. In other words, Republicans will come back out to vote, fewer Democrats will bother. Romney would be strong here because of his attitude to immigration, as well as his Mormon faith. As always, a lot will depend on how the economy is doing. Colorado is famously pro-military due to the large amount of military industry and infrastructure in the State. Lockhead Martin will spend heavily to support the Republicans here and so Obama’s money will make far less of a difference.
A tough one for the Republicans if Obama can keep turnout among Latinos high, but with mroe whites voting Obama’s lead here could disappear quickly, with no large african american population to fall back on. Tough, but worth spending a lot of money on for the GOP.
Virginia – 13 Electoral Votes – Maybe a bridge too far?
Viginia could be so key in 2012, it really could. A Bush supporter in 2004, just like it had voted Republican every time since Johnson. 2008 Obama won by 220,000 votes, a strong victory and with high turnout, the Republicans need to rely on independents actively switching here rather than a larger turnout from their own clan. The military matters in Virginia, and in rural Virginia so do guns and faith, both things the Republicans could exploit.
Looking at it, Virginia is actually the only state where you can probably say that people switched from Republican to Democrat in a big way, and by that I mean people who had voted Republican for most of their lives seemed to have moved over to Obama. Democrats have done well in the elections for Governor and for Congress, and that maybe the way the Republicans can claw this one back.
Virginia has elected almost only Democrats. So if things don’t improve in Virginia, there really is only one party to blame, the Democrats. That I think is what the Republicans will be running in the Old Dominion State. They’ll have to fight against a higher proportion of African Americans from the suburbs of D.C. though, and this could be a vicious fight that would decide the election.
It remains to be seen whether Virginians were simply voicing displeasure at Bush, or whether they really are going to be a Blue state now. I tend to think that while Virginia will now be more competitive, I think the people are fundamentally angry at the GOP, rather than abandoning it.
New Hampshire – 4 Electoral Votes
Fiscally conservative New Hampshire. If the Republicans tone down the social campaign here, and simply argue on economic matters, then Obama maybe in big trouble in the Democratic heartland of New England. They don’t like taxes anywehre, but New Hampshire residents REALLY hate taxes. Romney, from Massachusetts could win here, with some luck, but quite frankly it isn’t needed.
He can win the election with the states I have profiled. He actually has a choice between Colorado or New Hampshire, or even Nevada. He can win with 2 from those 3. If we are honest though, if he isn’t winning Nevada I don’t see him winning Colorado or New Hampshire. I think New Hampshire would be the hardest to win, but it wouldn’t be done through money, but through time. The Republicans would have to spend a lot of time there, and for that to work they’d have to be already doing well in bigger states like Ohio.
New Hampshire can go Republican though, it did in 2000 for example! But it would be hard.
If for the sake of argument Romney was the Republican nominee, and he took those States then he would end up on 276 Electoral Votes, and he would win the Presidency. It would be close, but he’d win. Taking 5 from those 6 is far from impossible, especially with a Romney who doesn’t feel the need to move too far to the right on social issues.
It’s the economy, stupid.
The election will be mainly fought on the economy, but other factors always matter. I think there are 2 others in particular for 2012.
1. Faith. Obama sold himself as a church-going Senator. He hasn’t been to Church since he was elected other than for funerals. Questions on his faith continue to grow. Not questions about him being a Muslim, but questions about his supposed lack of commitment to faith groups. Needless to say out of the Democratic Candidates for the Nomination Obama was the one with the most support amongst Atheists. He can afford to talk about God more, the Atheists are unlikely to vote Republican. Interestingly Romney is also in a bit of a problem with faith, being a Mormon. Many Americans have a problem with that, and that is why I think he needs a clearly strong Protestant Christian as a VP, Huckabee being ideal even if he doesn’t bring any new states into play really.
2. Element X. This is the big unknown, the terrorist attack, the watergate, the big thing that completely changes the dynamic of the election. You can’t prepare for it, you can’t bring out a poll that allows for it, you just have to accept that a massive issue may turn up that blows the election in a completely different direction.
So what have we seen? I’ve put together a strategy for Republicans in 2012, but it relies on a couple of things.
1 – They cannot pick Palin to be the nominee, the Presidential one or the VP. In fact, if she runs, they are in serious trouble. She’ll distract from whoever actually wins, or even worse than that, win herself, and carry the GOP to a complete obliteration in 2012. The most Palin can ever hope to be is a rally figure for the right, she can’t be President. Just look at the states I’ve mentioned here! Nevada? Maybe, not with Hispanic turnout. Floriday? Nope, too many Hispanics again. Ohio? Conceivably, if black turnout dropped by at least 50%. Colorado? Same issue. Virginia? Possible, quite possible. New Hampshire? Not a chance. Seeing as I picked some of the most winnable and necessary states, I think that shows she is out.
2 – They need to pick someone who can raise money. Obama will raise a lot, and they need someone who is better at pulling in money than McCain was, they aren’t used to be the people spending less. That probably rules out Huckabee as a 1st pick, as his support tends to be from low income earners, or Pawlenty who isn’t well known enough. Romney raises funds very effectively, and also has a whole lot of his own cash that he seems happy to spend fulfilling his political ambitions!
OK I’m done.
That is how the Republicans can win in 2012, I’m not saying they will. And It depends on many things, but they can win.
Romney could be very key.
Filed under: Philip-Anthony Gardner - Centrist, Barack Obama, Electoral College, Mitt Romney, Republican Party, Sarah Palin
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